Buyers and sellers are understandably asking what a change or continuation of government might mean for interest rates, housing policy, taxation, and ultimately property values.That uncertainty can sometimes encourage people to sit on their hands. However, attempting to time a property decision around an election result is often a flawed exercise. The truth, backed by historical data and current market activity, is that the property market is driven by the timeline of life, not the timeline of news.

The Election Myth: Data vs. Perception

The perception that elections disrupt the market is largely a myth. An analysis of the last three New Zealand elections (2017, 2020, and 2023) compared the six months before each election with the six months after, finding no "election effect" on new listings, asking prices, or buyer searches.

While new sale listings do typically rise after an election, this is simply because elections fall in spring, the season when listings historically increase every year. In the 2023 election year, new sale listings rose 33% post-election; in 2025, a year without an election, they still rose 28%. The data tells us that seasonality, not politics, drives market fluctuations. (Source: Realestate.co.nz).

This sentiment is echoed by active market participants. According to a Trademe Property survey from August 2026, only 20% of sellers and 22% of buyers agreed that the election was influencing their property decisions. (Source: Trademe Property). The reality is that buyer confidence is actually increasing: 61% of buyers in August felt it was a good time to buy, up from 55% in May.

The True Market Drivers: Supply, Demand, and Life Events

For most owner-occupiers, what matters is whether a move makes sense for their own circumstances. People still need larger homes as families grow. Others are downsizing, changing school zones, moving for work, or simply finding a home that better suits their lifestyle. These decisions do not disappear just because an election is approaching.

Right now, the primary challenge for buyers isn't the political climate; it is inventory. Buyer worry has shifted from 'I can't afford it' to 'I can't find it'. In May 2026, 40% of buyers cited the cost of living as a primary concern, which dropped to 37% by August. Conversely, concerns about a "lack of suitable properties" rose from 40% to 42% over the same period.

There is currently a high demand for good, refurbished family homes, yet supply remains low. When a vendor holds a well-presented property back waiting for political certainty, they are missing out on an active pool of frustrated buyers eager to transact today.

The Investor Exception

There is one area where caution is understandable: property investment. Proposed tax policies, such as a capital gains tax applied to residential investment property create a material difference for long-term holders. Some investors are understandably waiting for greater certainty. However, for the broader residential market and the family home, attempting to play the political cycle is an unnecessary risk.

Activity Continues at Pace

Properties are continuing to transact across Auckland. At MJRE, our financial year-to-date figures show robust activity, with 122 total auctions resulting in 78 sales a strong 64% clearance rate. Properties sold via auction are currently achieving a median of just 28 days on market, proving that when buyers find the right home, they act decisively.

In premium suburbs like Remuera, there is no single market. A family home in a tightly held school zone faces very different demand than an apartment or a development site. Buyers who have found the right home and vendors with a genuine reason to sell are far better served by making a good decision for themselves rather than trying to predict where the market will be after election day.

The message is simple: there is rarely a perfect moment to buy or sell. Good property decisions are made with a long-term view. Life goes on, the market carries on, and the right time to move is when it makes sense for your life.